Communicate uncertainty and decision sensitivity
Show when uncertain assumptions could change the decision.
Reviewed: 2026-10-03
Source-based teaching example · Fictional data
Narration: Microsoft Mark · locally synthesized

00:00:00.000 — What you will learn

Show when uncertain assumptions could change the decision.

Visual description:
Show when uncertain assumptions could change the decision.

00:00:05.958 — The idea

Calculate a range instead of choosing only the optimistic estimate. State which inputs are assumptions. If the range crosses from benefit to extra work, identify what to measure next.

Visual description:
Calculate a range instead of choosing only the optimistic estimate. State which inputs are assumptions. If the range crosses from benefit to extra work, identify what to measure next.

00:00:21.083 — One useful term

Sensitivity analysis. Checking how the result changes when an assumption changes.

Visual description:
Checking how the result changes when an assumption changes.

00:00:29.708 — A worked example

Twenty weekly requests at eight minutes each give a 160-minute baseline. Assumed assisted effort of five to nine minutes gives 100 to 180 minutes. That spans saving sixty minutes to adding twenty.

Visual description:
Twenty weekly requests at eight minutes each give a 160-minute baseline. Assumed assisted effort of five to nine minutes gives 100 to 180 minutes. That spans saving sixty minutes to adding twenty.

00:00:47.042 — Your turn to think

Does this planning range prove that time will be saved? Pause and decide before continuing.

Visual description:
Does this planning range prove that time will be saved?
Pause the video if you need more time.

00:01:03.708 — Why this answer works

No. Measure actual checking and correction effort. An assumption range is not a measured statistical confidence interval.

Visual description:
No. Measure actual checking and correction effort. An assumption range is not a measured statistical confidence interval.

00:01:14.583 — Check 1

State assumed inputs.

Visual description:
State assumed inputs.

00:01:19.250 — Check 2

Show both favorable and unfavorable cases.

Visual description:
Show both favorable and unfavorable cases.

00:01:25.167 — Check 3

Name the next measurement needed.

Visual description:
Name the next measurement needed.

00:01:30.042 — Now try a different case

Open the lesson and try its different practice case. Use every check in the full task. Watching alone does not mark the lesson complete.

Visual description:
Open the lesson
Try the new case
Check and revise
The full task and its requirements are in the linked lesson.