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Communicate uncertainty and decision sensitivity
Show when uncertain assumptions could change the decision.
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Communicate uncertainty and decision sensitivity
Show when uncertain assumptions could change the decision.
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Source-based teaching example · Fictional data · Reviewed 2026-10-03. Microsoft Mark · locally synthesized. On a small screen, use fullscreen for diagram details or read the transcript.
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0:00 · What you will learn
Show when uncertain assumptions could change the decision.
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Show when uncertain assumptions could change the decision.
0:05 · The idea
Calculate a range instead of choosing only the optimistic estimate. State which inputs are assumptions. If the range crosses from benefit to extra work, identify what to measure next.
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Calculate a range instead of choosing only the optimistic estimate. State which inputs are assumptions. If the range crosses from benefit to extra work, identify what to measure next.
0:21 · One useful term
Sensitivity analysis. Checking how the result changes when an assumption changes.
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Checking how the result changes when an assumption changes.
0:29 · A worked example
Twenty weekly requests at eight minutes each give a 160-minute baseline. Assumed assisted effort of five to nine minutes gives 100 to 180 minutes. That spans saving sixty minutes to adding twenty.
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Twenty weekly requests at eight minutes each give a 160-minute baseline. Assumed assisted effort of five to nine minutes gives 100 to 180 minutes. That spans saving sixty minutes to adding twenty.
0:47 · Your turn to think
Does this planning range prove that time will be saved? Pause and decide before continuing.
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Does this planning range prove that time will be saved? Pause the video if you need more time.
1:03 · Why this answer works
No. Measure actual checking and correction effort. An assumption range is not a measured statistical confidence interval.
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No. Measure actual checking and correction effort. An assumption range is not a measured statistical confidence interval.
1:14 · Check 1
State assumed inputs.
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State assumed inputs.
1:19 · Check 2
Show both favorable and unfavorable cases.
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Show both favorable and unfavorable cases.
1:25 · Check 3
Name the next measurement needed.
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Name the next measurement needed.
1:30 · Now try a different case
Open the lesson and try its different practice case. Use every check in the full task. Watching alone does not mark the lesson complete.
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Open the lesson Try the new case Check and revise The full task and its requirements are in the linked lesson.
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